The Truthful Art: Uncertainty and The Basics

Here’s the dirty little secret about data: it’s always noisy and uncertain.

Alberto Cairo, p. 112, The Truthful Art

Honestly, I never really gave uncertainty much critical thought until I stumbled upon Visualizing Uncertain Weather a 2017 article by Jen Christiansen in Scientific American (Who was mentioned in the article? Professor Cairo) where she talks about snowfall, Winter Storm Stella and moves into how hurricane visualizations are problematic.

Living in Syracuse, New York where tracking winter weather is like a part-time job, her article made me think about all the times forecasters would predict major snow madness and nothing much would happen. It’s like The Boy Who Cried Wolf. Sound the alarm enough with no need and people start to ignore the alarm. Heck, even the cashiers at the local grocery chain, Wegmans, make fun of people who, in their minds, overreact to winter warnings.

I’m one of the overreactors. If there is a storm on the way, I’m going to prepare. Blame my dad. “Always be prepared”, he advised. Plus, here’s the deal: weather shifts. It isn’t some linear condition. There are many variables.

So, now that I’m back in school, I’m thinking: why don’t weather apps do what the National Weather Service does for snow accumulation as Jen had pointed out? All I get are text reports which help to some degree but a visualization would be more effective.

Speaking of hurricanes, I confess I’m nervous about one landing while I’m in school. So, I decided that as soon as any hurricane is considered a Category 3 I’m out. Some apartment neighbors say you can hold it out in a Category 4. Given that most hurricane maps fail to show uncertainty and the scope of its impact, I’m not taking any chances. The traffic alone is a reason to start exiting as soon as possible.

I digress.

Reading more about uncertainty in The Truthful Art brought to mind another article by Jen in Scientific American that I came across through a tweet from Professor Cairo before I started his class: Visualizing Science: Illustration and Beyond It’s a lengthy article but one that I found fascinating as Jen took me on a journey through her experiences as an illustrator, infographer, art director, and I think, educator.

She ends with uncertainty and provides rich examples of how uncertainty has been expressed visually. Reading the entire article again, I’ve understand what she offers differently because I’ve learned more about visualization since my first read. It’s even more a keeper of an article and one I’ll continue to refer back to given the plethora of resources, tips and ideas she presents.

Examples of uncertainty from Visualizing Science: Illustration and Beyond

Being a beginner … again.

All of us who do creative work, like you know, we get into it and we get into it because we have good taste, but its like there’s a gap. That for the first couple years that you’re making stuff, what you’re making isn’t so good, OK? It’s not that great. It’s trying to be good, it has ambition to be good, but it not quite that good. But your taste, the thing that got you into the game, your taste, is still killer …

Ira Glass, Storytelling

I confessed in a previous post that I’ve always been scared of math. Over time, I’ve come to believe I’m not good at math nor good with numbers. But when I read Professor Cairo’s retelling of Professor Richard Thaler’s experiment with an exam, I laughed out loud.

Basically, Professor Thaler changed the maximum score of a test from 100 points to 137 points. When the exam was 100 pts, the average score was 72. When the exam was 137 pts, the average score was 96.

“Exams will have a total of 137 points rather than the usual 100. This scoring system has no effect on the grade you get in the course, but it seems to make you happier”

Richard Thaler, p. 122, para. 3, The Truthful Art

The visualization Professor Cairo presents shows the hilarity of the experiment.

Perhaps why I’ve come to love data visualization in just a few short weeks is because the good ones help me understand numbers, relationships and more importantly, the stories behind the numbers. Plus, I love information, organizing it, structuring it and even more, helping people understand it.

Of course, the frustrating aspect is that I’m still learning how to find data and then understand the raw information. My frustration is that I have so many questions and stories I want to tell but lack the skills at the moment to execute. I have to remember to be patient when it comes to all this “newness”.

“Encoding” is a new term for me; however, “mapping data into visual properties”, makes perfect sense. I still struggle with which type of visualization would be the most appropriate but what I enjoy most about learning visualization is that I’m learning a process; a structure or framework that gives what I create a strong foundation based in reasoning.

Don’t misunderstand. As a designer I learned early on with mentors and working with my colleagues to base my decisions on audience, metrics, goals, etc. But what I’ve learned so far through the Interactive Media program has essentially provided me with Super Glue. Glue that provides me with the terminology and methods to give cogency to design ideas or solutions. It’s a feeling of empowerment.

“Plot what you need to plot.” For some reason reading this allowed me to let out air. It is a version of sketching and iteration. You need to explore to see. This seems so apropos to why I’m back in school; a reminder for when I’m exhausted and wondering what I’ve done by taking myself out of the workforce for two years.

Learning is exploration. I’m iterating my designer Self. I’m exploring the “unknown unknowns” by starting with the basics.

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